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NEW QUESTION: 1
Robert Williams is a junior analyst at Anderson Brothers, a large Wall Street brokerage firm. He reports to Will McDonald, the chief economist for Anderson Brothers. McDonald provides economic research, forecasts, and interpretation of economic data to all of Anderson's investment departments, as well as the firm's clients. McDonald has asked Williams to analyze economic trends in the country of Bundovia. The currency of Bundovia is the Bunco (BU).
Williams first analyzes the effect of rising nominal Bundovian interest rates relative to U.S interest rates on the supply and demand for BU. He determines that the increase in Bundovian nominal interest rates would increase the demand for BU and, because the BU supply curve is upward sloping, the BU will appreciate and the equilibrium quantity of BU will increase proportionately.
Bundovia has announced plans to impose either a tariff or a quota on semiconductor imports from the United States. McDonald also asks Williams to analyze the potential effect on Bundovian Semiconductors, the dominant semiconductor manufacturer located in Bundovia. Currently, Bundovian Semiconductors is not competitive in the global semiconductor market because its higher production costs make it unable to generate profits at the current world market price. Williams concludes that the imposition of either a tariff or quotas would benefit Bundovian Semiconductors. The company would become competitive with foreign producers in its domestic semiconductor market because imports would be reduced and domestic production would rise.
Exhibit 1 shows the trend in the average BU/USD exchange rate over the past three years.
Williams asks the bank for a GBP/SFr cross rate.
From the same bank, Williams receives the following forward rate quotes in the USD/GBP market:
* 30-day forward rate: USD/GBP = USD/GBP = 2.0045 - 55
* 60-day forward rate: USD/GBP = USD/GBP = 2.0075 - 85
Williams has uncovered a potential arbitrage opportunity in the foreign exchange markets. The current spot rate is $2.00 per BU. The Bundovian risk-free interest rate is 3%, and the one-year forward rate is $2.10 per BU. The U.S. risk-free rate is 5%.
The maximum profit from covered interest arbitrage in the USD/BU market by borrowing $1,000 or the BU equivalent is closest to:
The covered interest differential is:
Therefore the appropriate arbitrage strategy is to borrow dollars at the "low rate" of 5% and invest in BU at the "high" rate of 8.15%.
1. Borrow $1,000 at 5%. At the end of one year, Williams will be obligated to repay $1,000(1.05) = $1,050.
2. Convert the $1,000 to BU at the spot rate, which yields $l,000/($2/BU) = BU500.
3. Simultaneously enter into a 1-year forward contract to convert BU to USD at the forward rate of $2.1000/ BU.
4. Invest BU500 at 3%. In one year, Williams will receive proceeds of BU5O0(1.03) = BU515.
5. Convert the BU515 back to USD at the forward rate, which was locked in at the .($2.1/BU) beginning of the year and yields BU) = $ 1,081.50.
6. Arbitrage profits = $1,081.50 - $1,050 = $31.50.
Notice that the arbitrage profits are equal to the covered interest differential times the initial amount borrowed: $1,000(0.0315) = $31.50. (Study Session 4, LOS 18.h)